Of course, right after I said in my previous post that fundraising advantage held by those in favor of Proposition 8, a new Field Poll is released stating that the opponents to Proposition 8 are gaining a larger lead. As of July, 51% of voters planned to vote no, with 42% planning to vote yes. As of yesterday, these numbers have changed to 55% and 38% respectivly. Was my comment in my previous post far too pessimistic?
I do not necessarily think so. Liberal voters are more likely to answer questions posed by pollers. Also, with an issue that can be framed as one of "equality and freedom," voters may or may not answer truthfully to pollers, especially if they feel that they will be judged somehow for their answer. Voters that do not have especially firm beliefs about the issue of same-sex marriage might feel uncomfortable saying that they plan to vote yes on Proposition 8 if they feel that they might have to defend their position. There end up being a few factors that could cause that 17% gap to be a lot smaller in reality.
Maybe I am being too pessimistic. But I would be cautions about celebrating any supposed "lead" when it is about an issue that is accessible to all voters (arguable, most voters can have some idea of what marriage should be), as opposed to a more complicated issue such as the economy or healthcare reform. Many people can draw their own conclusions about the Proposition, based on very little understanding of the issue at hand...and still think that they understand all the factors that are involved. A voter may think about the issue , decide he or she will vote no, but upon entering the voting booth on November 4th the voter may remember a sermon delivered by his or her pastor declaiming the "evils of homosexulaity," and choose to vote yes.
All in all? I like the polling numbers. But I would not jump up and down with glee just yet.
Field Poll: http://field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2287.pdf
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1 comment:
I like your analysis of the recent polls. I would like to think that people are being honest when asked polling questions, but in reality societal pressures can definitely alter a person's would-be truthful response. My question for you is do you think the same could be happening to any degree in the presidential race? Is it possible that a select number of people say they will vote Obama when asked in polls but when they get into the voting both may choose to go with the more experienced "safe" choice of Mccain? Let me know what you think on my blog at: http://neweraforamerica.blogspot.com/
-Alex
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