Monday, November 3, 2008

Final Poll Blitz - What Does It All Mean?

Tomorrow is the big day. By this time tomorrow night, the polls in California will have closed, and the fate of same-sex marriage will have been decided (if not yet announced).

Dramatic isn't it?

A number of the most recent polls across the state have shown the gap between those supporting and those opposing Proposition 8 narrowing. The most recent Field Poll puts the gap at 49% No, 44% Yes, and 7% Undecided. The Public Policy Institute of California puts the gap at 52% No, 44% Yes. The gap between Yes/No votes has narrowed since earlier polls taken by both organisations.

http://field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2292.pdf
http://www.ppic.org/main/pressrelease.asp?i=886

Essentially, this could be either side's game on election day. It is a little too close for comfort to call for the no vote with 100% certainty. The issue really at stake here however, is who actually manages to vote tomorrow, not the opinion of likely voters. With wait times at polls expected to be hours long in some locations, one must worry whether liberal voters will actually make it to the polls to vote no. With California undoubtedly going for Obama, will liberal voters bother to wait in long lines to vote on a proposition that might not have any direct affect upon their lives? If I were the No on 8 campaign, I would be VERY nervous about voter turnout tomorrow. Liberal voters giving up at the polls tomorrow could very well enable the supporters of proposition 8 to eek out a victory. We shall have to see. Not much left to do but to cross our fingers, pray for no inclement weather, and hope that those poll lines stay at a managable length.

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